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Pitch

The biological world is an enormous and largely untapped database of strategies that can be applied to the challenge of climate adaptation.


Description

Summary

Natural organisms have survived, and thrived, in a risk filled and unpredictable world for 3.5 billion years without planning for or predicting the future, and without trying to optimize or perfect their responses. Rather than waste resources on ineffective planning and optimization processes as most human organizations do, natural organisms adapt to the challenges at hand. Adaptability allows an organism to own the space between reacting to a crisis (by which point it is too late) and trying to predict the next crisis (which is effectively impossible in a complex world).

It is impossible to prepare for adaptation without being adaptable. Fortunately, the secrets of biological adaptation--though largely underutilized--are neither difficult to understand, nor difficult to utilize in human society.  

The lessons we can distill from biological adaptation can be presented as a set of practices that any organization of any size--public or private--can begin to implement immediately. These practices involve: 1) the ability to see change using decentralized sets of observers; 2) embracing redundant solutions to have a hedge against uncertainty; 3) developing symbiotic partnerships to extend your adaptable capacities; and 4) creating a culture of learning from success to build a feedback loop toward ever greater adaptability. 

These practices can be jump-started even within the most ossified and inflexible organization with one step, which is to switch from giving orders to issuing challenges. Challenge based problem solving--which is beginning to be implemented in an enormous range of fields from mathematics to higher education--activates all of the practices of adaptable systems.

Our project combines highly interdisciplinary research with effective outreach strategies to develop a culture of adaptation within businesses, governments and communities trying to deal with the uncertainty and risk of climate change. 


Category of the action

Adaptation


What actions do you propose?

Our approach essentially mimics the practices of adaptable systems discussed above.  Our research arm will use a range of redundant strategies and symbiotic partnerships to develop insights into adaptability, while our outreach arm will help the organizations we work with activate decentralized problem solvers and build recursive learning processes that build from past successes.

We will create a low-overhead, and minimally structured consortium to serve as a boundary organization between government and non-government organizations and communities and practitioners that are experiencing climate change impacts and trying to adapt to them.  This "Adaptable Solutions Consortium" will bring researchers and practitioners together to analyze climate adaptation policies and strategies under the lens of adaptability, highlight novel approaches inspired by biology, and help guide the practical application of biological insight to climate change adaptation.  Our goal is to translate the vast natural database on adaptability into innovative ideas and pragmatic guidance for the wide range of audiences that are trying to understand how to be adaptable.

Although our approach to adaptability is novel, we have established a robust foundation of research and synthesis that has already been well vetted with scientists, security experts in a multitude of fields, and distinguished political leaders.  This foundation was built over the last seven years by a highly interdisciplinary team of biologists, anthropologists, psychologists, virologists, public health specialists, security analysts and practitioners convened by Dr. Rafe Sagarin. Our initial findings were published in the book Natural Security: A Darwinian Approach to a Dangerous World (2008, University of California Press), edited by Sagarin and Terence Taylor, which has received international media attention and strong reviews in leading journals and magazines. We have continued to hone the ideas behind Natural Security with diverse and influential audiences from corporations such as Google, Inc. and IBM, government agencies including the Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, and Department of Commerce, and scientific and security organizations and think tanks including the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  Dr. Sagarin has recently published Learning from the Octopus: How Secrets from Nature Can Help Us Fight Terrorism, Natural Disasters, and Disease (2012, Basic Books).  This book, written for a general audience, received significant media coverage and will be used in classes, working groups, and professional development workshops to begin a dialogue on how any field can benefit from a biological approach to becoming more adaptable.

New and Emerging Tools

Our goal is to develop a wide range of outreach tools that can be used by different stakeholders and audiences. 

Dr. Sagarin has released the website www.adaptablesolutions.org as a hub for activities of the consortium and a platform for disseminating insights on adaptability and evaluation tools that will be developed with the Consortium. Sagarin will author a follow-up book to “Learning from the Octopus” specifically tailored to business and management.  Sagarin is also developing tools such as “Adaptability Cards” as both print and web ap products which are quick reference synopses of the adaptability concepts that will appeal to a wide range of users looking to boost their creativity and responsiveness.

As researchers, we will work with our expanding international network of political leaders, policy analysts and scientists to explore specific questions related to how adaptability can be restricted or enhanced in practice. 

As conveners, we will develop work products using an iterative process that mimics selective processes in nature.  To create this selective process we will: 1) convene intensive topical working groups—for example, on adaptive decision making or on adaptation in coastal regions--designed to critically evaluate biologically inspired adaptability theories and their applications; 2) disseminate results of working groups to diverse targeted audiences in forums where critical feedback is encouraged; 3) produce provocative reports and peer-reviewed papers in a range of media to further disseminate work products; and 4) bring ideas, as revised through feedback, to new working groups. The products of our efforts will be both the shared research results themselves, which will influence a radical redirection in how adaptability is practiced in the respective fields, as well as the emergence of a responsive and robust network of experts who are willing to work beyond the borders of their core fields to improve climate adaptation broadly.

As consultants, we will offer the insights we have gained in our research and convening roles to emerging and well-established organizations and professional associations.  Both the public and private sector are becoming increasingly intrigued by ecological and evolutionary insights, including “biomimicry”. We will develop a self-evaluation tool that individuals and organizations can use to determine their strengths and stretches in adaptability.  Data gathered from users’ input into this tool will be analyzed by the research arm of the Consortium to further refine our understanding of biological and social adaptation. 


Who will take these actions?

Leadership

The Adaptable Solutions Consortium will be directed by Dr. Sagarin, an ecologist and environmental policy analyst at the University of Arizona.  Sagarin is a Guggenheim Fellow and former science advisor to Representative (later Labor Secretary) Hilda Solis. He has made several vital contributions to his field, including documenting some of the first evidence of the effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the natural world. Sagarin is the Principal Investigator on one of the first Department of Defense contracts to study climate change adaptation on military installations. He has been a keynote speaker for research, public interest, and private sector organizations, including the American Red Cross, the Marketing Science Institute, and the Centre for International Governance Innovation.  His scientific work is published in the leading journals Science, Nature, PLoS Biology, as well as in top specialist journals in security, ecology, and environmental law.  In addition to Learning from the Octopus, Sagarin recently published Observation and Ecology: Broadening the Scope of Science to Understand a Complex World (2012 Island Press), about how science itself is adapting to deal with global environmental changes.


Where will these actions be taken?

The Consortium is designed with a flexible structure that allows us to operate both remotely and in-person.   Our main hub is at the University of Arizona, which was recently ranked the number one research university in the United States for the environmental field and has a particular specialty in climate adaptation science, with the director (Kathy Jacobs) and several lead authors of the recent National Climate Assessment on our faculty.  Additionally, we have a close partnership with the International Council for the Life Sciences, a non-profit 501(c)3, The ICLS will provide conference space and logistic support to run working groups in Washington, DC, which is convenient and attractive for international visitors and policy-oriented participants.  ICLS, an offshoot of Senator Sam Nunn’s Nuclear Threat Initiative, also lends considerable clout and connections in the realms of global security, emerging infectious disease, and risk management.  Our initial working group members are located in top universities, think tanks, and corporations around the world, and we will continue to expand this network in order to facilitate operations wherever the need and opportunity arises.


What are other key benefits?

This approach is applicable far beyond climate adaptation. The 21st century faces grave threats to security and business related to emerging infectious diseases, cyber security, conflicts with non-state actors, fluctuations in global markets, and natural disasters. As diverse and complex as these threats are, they share the commonality that they would all be better mitigated by adaptable responses. In fact, in any situation where risk is unavoidable and largely unpredictable, we can apply the lessons of biological evolution. Currently, business leaders, security experts, public health officials, and environmental activists are clamoring to be more adaptable, but few understand exactly how it can be done.  Wehave already found receptive audiences to the concepts of biologically inspired adaptation in fields as diverse as counter-terrorism, K-12 education, emergency response, marketing, and international relations.


What are the proposal’s costs?

To conduct research and workshops, publish and deliver the results to key policy officials a work plan over two years is estimated to cost approximately $250,000. The direct costs will include the Principal Investigator’s time, a graduate research assistant who will be mentored by Sagarin, research travel, conduct of of working groups, briefing events, support of a website, and electronic and hard copy publications.

Considerable value added will be generated by centering the project at the University of Arizona, a Tier 1 research institution with outstanding library and administrative support.

Additionally, we will develop a consulting role for the private sector, which will allow us to transition a significant part of the Consortium’s operational budget from grant and donation supported work to income generating pathways. 


Time line

The work proposed is ongoing and thus requires few delays in startup as a Climate Colab project.  This project will dovetail well with existing research and outreach efforts on adaptation by the PI and consortium partners. Dr. Sagarin already maintains a regular consultation with the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Homeland Defense and Security, to help train practitioners in emergency response and security in adaptable practices.  Additionally, he is the lead PI on a Department of Defense proposal to help southwest military installations identify the risks and develop capacity to adapt to climate change.


Related proposals

Dr. Sagarin currently leads a 3 year, $1.2 M project funded by the Department of Defense's Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) to study risks to climate change and pathways for adaptation in southwestern Department of Defense facilities.  This project is very complementary to the proposed climate co-lab work.


References

2012             Sagarin, R. Learning from the Octopus: The Secrets from Nature That Can Help Us Fight Terrorist Attacks, Natural Disasters and Disease. Basic Books

2012             Sagarin, R and A. Pauchard.  Observation and Ecology: Broadening the Scope of Science to Understand a Complex World. Island Press

2012    Sagarin, R. and Taylor, T.  Natural Security: How Biological Systems Use Information to Adapt in an Unpredictable World. Security Informatics. 1(1):14 pp.

2010    Sagarin, R. Natural security for a variable and risk-filled world. Homeland Security Affairs 6(3):http://www.hsaj.org/?article=6.3.4

2010    Sagarin, R., C. Alcorta, S. Atran, D. Blumstein, G. Dietl, M. Hochberg, D. Johnson, S. Levin, E. Madin, J. Madin, E. Prescott, R. Sosis, T. Taylor, J. Tooby, G. Vermeij. Decentralize, adapt, and cooperate.  Nature. 465: 292-293.

2008             Sagarin, R. and T. Taylor, editors.  Natural Security: A Darwinian Approach to a Dangerous World.  University of California Press.