A simple model for global emission stabilization. by Hannah & David
Aug 13, 2014
Quite interesting idea, akin to McCracken proposal, but at a more conceptual level. Has advantage of simplicity and equity. Questions: how to go from this intriguing framework to adoption by the key players? What messaging/mobilization strategies could lead to implementation?
Aug 14, 2014
Thanks for the comments Jasmine. Had a read through the McCracken proposal and found it interesting and as you mention has some conceptual similarities and objectives. Yes big question:- how does a conceptual idea develop into a global consensus or even to be discussed by the key players? Talking as a lay-person in this field without influential contacts I won't fool myself that I could design to achieve? In my experience however concepts and ideas spread in an evolutionary manner rather by design. What can we do to give it an evolutionary chance - keep it simple and hopefully easily understood, back it up with detail and research to make it credible, be open to evolution and change (if an element of the idea breeds success it has been an evolutionary success), sow the idea/concept around to hopefully reach some fertile ground where it has a chance of developing, cross-breeding and spreading. We're new members on Climate CoLab but on first impressions it looks like a good place to plant an idea - even your link to McCracken takes us to someone who obviously has extensive knowledge and experience in this field.
Aug 20, 2014
Good to be thinking about the total carbon budget of the world, but the proposal does not address the problem of enforcement. How to scale up from what each individual country does? Voluntary caps of this kind proposed here have been put forward to address climate change since the 1990s but have not really solved the problem. And the analogy to the European acid rain issue is flawed, since there is debate among researchers about whether voluntary caps were really the key to tackling that issue. - A somewhat operational variant of the Contraction and Convergence type of targets first laid out by Bert Bolin and Haroon Kheshgi in PNAS as well as NGO representatives like Audrey Meyers of the Global Commons Institute. The novelty seems to be the use of I/O models to do the accounting, but it is not clear this will really motivate countries to cooperate and second a number of Global trade models have been developed which have flexible I=O coeffiecnts built into them. For example Rutherford, Boehringer and Balistieri published a 13 way model comparison of such trade models in Climate Change Economics at the end of 2012. - How might a scheme like this be enforced? Interesting idea at a conceptual level, has advantage of simplicity and equity. But how to go from this framework to adoption by key actors? What messaging/mobilization strategies could lead to implementation?
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