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Ecological & Economic KEYS to GHG balance, quick scale productivity, resiliency, food security, water availability, energy supply and income


Description

Summary

It is described the effect of Agriculture, Livestock & Forestry Land Use in the atmospheric balance of GHGs as well as in the Sustainability of Land Resources, where they take place.

In each activity it is focused the core CAUSES and the imperative ACTIONS to simultaneously drive them all to GHG Mitigation and Sustainable Production.

Finally Economic Measures are proposed for Markets Regulation in order to make them able to receive the Unsustainability Signals (+ghg + resources degradation) and so, Prices may drive Consumption, SavingsManagement and Investment Decisions.

The purpose of this proposal is to collaborate by:
- Focus on the few main core CAUSES
- Focus on the few imperative ACTIONS
- Focus on ECOSYSTEMS / BIOSPHERE as a whole
While the global atmosphere is being polluted by GHG, Land Resources, life, soil, water, nutrients, ... are being also globally polluted, damageddeteriorated, in its structure and functions as Ecosystems, and GHG growing levels are just one of the Consequences. Ecosystems direct deterioration is an issue of the same order of Magnitude and Consequences that Climate Change
- Earmark GHG Fees, Totally & Exclusively  to finance the specific imperative ACTIONS proposed by Investment Tax Exemptions, … , Promotion, Research, Education, …
- Alert, that despite the immense and excellent work done, we are still like taxiing on the runway Information and Knowledge available for decision-making are enough. It's time for Policy Makers/Citizens to get enough Wisdom to find the way and Courage to put full throttle, take off and climb steeply


To place this proposal in context, below is a view of the status and trends by IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policy Makers. 
 

IPCC by Sectors


IPCC GHG Trend

The AFOLU sector accounts for about a quarter (~ 10 – 12GtCO2eq / yr) of net anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation, ... 
IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers.


Chart 1 What 

Atmosphere GHG BALANCE CONTRIBUTION/Emissions CAUSES/Unsustainable Land Use CAUSES/ Integrated ACTIONSChart 1 arribaChart 1 abajo

 


What actions do you propose?


AGRICULTURE / LIVESTOCK / FORESTRY
Primary Production / Secondary Production / Primary Production

Chart 1 What / CAUSES
Chart 1 arriba

EMISSIONS
(R: Reduces; S: Sequesters; I: Increases)

AGRICULTURE
+GHGs Balance CAUSES

In agriculture, the 3 major GHGs sequestration/emissions sources  are:
1.CO2 Sequestration from Photosynthesis – Respiration = + Biomass (S)
2. + NO2 Emissions from Nitrification/Denitrification due to N fertilization practices (I)
3.
+ CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels used on crop production management as tillage, planting, cultivation, fertilization, weed/ /insects/diseases control, harvest, conditioning, storage, transportation, processing, … (I)
LIVESTOCK
+GHGs Emissions CAUSES

In livestock production , the 4 major GHGs emissions sources  are:
1. +CO2 Emissions Respiration  (I)
2. +NO2 Emissions from Nitrification/Denitrification due to manure and N fertilization practice when present (I)
3. +CH4 Emissions
from Digestion Process/enteric fermentation (I)
4.
+CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels used in livestock, pasture management, forage production, feeding, transportation, processing, … (I)
FORESTRY
+GHGs Balance CAUSES

In forestry, the 4 major GHGs sequestration/emissions sources  are:
Deforestation
1.+CO2 Emissions balance from Net Photosynthesis decrease , Area cleared  (I)
2.+CO2 Emissions from Oxidation biomass (natural or burned) of removed Forest  (I)
3.
+CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels combustion  (cutting , transportation, manufacturing, burning,  …) (I)
Afforestation/
Replanting
1.–CO2 Sequestration  from Net Photosynthesis increase, Area added/recovered  (S)
2.+CO2 Emissions
from fossil fuels combustion (planting, transportation, manufacturing, processing, …) (I)

SUSTAINABILITY
AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK and FORESTRY, all, have  4 major drivers to Unsustainable Land Use/Unresilient Landscapes
-Unsustainable Land Use CAUSES
a. Soil uncover
Bare Soils Exposure
to water precipitations and wind blowing, driving to Erosion, Water Infiltration Decrease, Materials and Nutrient Loss, …  hence to irreversible soil Deterioration of the soil resource and Productivity Decrease.
b. Nutrients and Water cycles break and depletion
Nutrients
used to Biomass Production  are Partially Recycled, except O, H and at times part of C and N, the rest, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, B, Cl, Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, Mo, Ni, … are mostly Exported out of production fields, as a Slow Mining.
Water often bypass the normal cycle lowering Aquifers Levels.
c. Agrochemical Pollution
Agrochemicals applications (herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, …) to control  crop weed/insects/diseases, … pollute, life, atmosphere, water, soil, …
d. Biodiversity Loss

Production is concentrated in quite Few Major Crop/Breeds/Species decreasing the amount of genetic resources availability, a Key Fundamental Resource for ecosystems structure, function, regulation and hence for Food Security.


Chart 1 What / ACTIONS
Chart 1 abajo

ACTIONS

R: Reduce; S: Sequesters; 1 to 4 and letters following, a to c, indicate the cause/s to which the action relates
Energy Sources, Production Technology, Economic Policy, Education
Key, Sustainable, that can be, rapidly implemented and  brought to scale to address  both Purposes

AGRICULTURE
13a. No-Tillage/Terraces   (R+S)
Specific actions:
*No Tillage and/or Terraces, … greatly reduce Water Erosion
, as long as they achieve a full soil coverage.
*Planting Coverage/ Barrier Plants, …  greatly reduce Wind Erosion, as long as they achieve full soil coverage.
Technology is available.
Full Sustainability means 0-Erosion.

12b. Nutrients/Water Recycling   (R)
Nutrients
Specific actions:
*Not remove crop residues from production fields
.
*Maximize the return of wastes of animal feed and human food to production fields (Industries: Grain Conditioning/Processing, Feed and Food processing, Feed and Food Production, Poultry/Swine/Beef Production, Human, Sewage Treatment, … )
*Nitrogen fixation by legumes/other species in the future, including them as part of rotations.
Technology available should be applied return nutrients exported, back to production fields.
Full Sustainability means Complete Nutrient Recycling.
Water
Specific actions:
*Adjust irrigation
water flows to maintain and insure proper level of aquifers.
Technology already is enough and available.
Full Sustainability means Aquifers 0-Depletion.

1bc. Biotech/ (weeds, insects, fungus, ..resistance)  (R)
Specific actions:

*Biotech, as has already begun to show, seems to be an excellent tool to replace the use of agrochemicals to control competitors by incorporating resistance.
*The Biotech is too a way to increase yields, incorporate N fixation abilities in crop species and all kind of production features
(photosynthesis/water use/nutrient use/ efficiencies, … )
Biotechnology in part available while growing and developing.  
Full Sustainability means 0-Pollution.

1d. Reservations/National, State, County, Farm level   (S)
Specific actions:
*Beyond National, State, County current Land Reservations, each Farm/Production Unit must have a part (3%) of its land Reserved to keep the biodiversity resource.

Technology is already available.
Full Sustainability means from now on 0-Biodiversity loss.

1abc. BIOFUELS FROM FOOD FEEDSTOCK, STOP   (R)
Actual Agriculture, is not sustainable (+Emissions + Unsustainability a. b. c. d.).
Hence we need to adjust the size of agriculture just to the food market demand while preventing  food prices rise, and meanwhile make it sustainable.
Biofuel production, from Corn (Ethanol), from Soybeans (Biodiesel), are neither sustainable nor economic. Even from Sugarcane (Ethanol) that is the most efficient, it also becomes unsustainable and not economic, when erosion, nutrient and water depletion, agrochemical pollution biodiversity loss, ... costs as well as fossil fuels subsidies were considered in the production costs.

We can start off to consider biofuels from: non-food feedstock, no- erosion, full-nutrient recycling, no-aquifer levels variation, ... costs assessed in full life cycle, unsubsidized cost of fossil fuel, negative balance of ghg ...

Specific actions:
*Stop biofuels production from food feedstock commodities source.


LIVESTOCK
14a. No-Tillage/Terraces   (R+S)
Specific actions:
*No Tillage and/or Terraces, … greatly reduce Water Erosion
, as long as they achieve a full soil coverage.
*Planting Coverage/ Barrier Plants, …  greatly reduce Wind Erosion, as long as they achieve full soil coverage.
Technology for this practices is available.
Full Sustainability means 0-Erosion.

12b. Nutrients/Water Recycling   (R)
Nutrients
Specific actions:
*Not remove crop residues from production fields
.
*Maximize the return of wastes of animal feed and human food to production fields
*Nitrogen fixation by legumes, including them as part of rotations.

Technology is available.
Full Sustainability means Complete Nutrient Recycling.
Water
Specific actions:
*Adjust irrigation
water flows to maintain and insure proper level of aquifers.
Technology already is available.
Full Sustainability means Aquifers 0-Depletion.

1bc. Biotech/ (weeds, insects, fungus, ..resistance)  (R)
Specific actions:

*The Biotech, as has already begun to show, seems to be an excellent tool to replace the use of agrochemicals to control competitors by incorporating resistance.
*The Biotech is too a way to increase yields, incorporate N fixation abilities in crop species and all kind of production features
(photosynthesis/water use/nutrient use/ efficiencies, … )
Biotechnology is in part available while growing and developing.
Full Sustainability means 0-Pollution.

1d. Reservations/National, State, County, Farm level  (S)
Specific actions:
*Beyond National, State, County current Land Reservations, each Farm/Production Unit must have a part of its land (3%) Reserved to keep the biodiversity resource.

Technology is already available.
Full Sustainability means from now on 0-Biodiversity loss.

3. Manure Energy Production  (R)
Specific actions:
*Livestock wastes must be used as feedstock to produce  methane gas as fuel to power farm generators.

Technology already is enough and available.

1-4. DECREASE RATIO/  Secondary / Primary  Production
World food production must tend to a lower Secondary/Primary Production ratio, a shorter  food chain.
* The first way is to reduce the share of grain-fed cattle, by far the less efficient  in terms of Food Energy/Feed Energy.

FORESTRY
123abcd. DEFORESTATION STOP (S)

Deforestation must stop, because: Iit is a source of ghg emissions, the land cleared is occupied by agriculture and/or livestock, yet unsustainable activities (emissions/agriculture-livestock land use) , and an irreversible change in the biosphere.
Specific actions:
*Deforestation Stop, everywhere.

Technology is already available.
Full Sustainability from now on means 0-Deforestation.

12abc. Afforestation + Replanting/Reservation   (S)                                    
Afforestation and replanting/reservation must start over deforestation areas,  damaged by erosion,  deteriorated soils (organic matter loss , nutrients depleted, … ) .
Specific actions:
*Afforestation and Replanting/Reservation  in
all the areas, damaged by erosion, depletion of nutrients and organic matter loss.
Technology is already available.
Full Sustainability from now on means 0-Land Resources Deterioration.

1bc. Biotech/(weeds, insects, fungus,…   resistance)   (R)
Specific actions:

*The Biotech, as has already begun to show, seems to be an excellent tool to replace the use of agrochemicals to control competitors by incorporating resistance.
Biotechnology in part available while growing and developing.
Full Sustainability means 0-Pollution.

1d. Reservations/ National, State, County,…  Farm level  (S)
Specific actions:
*Beyond National, State, County current Land Reservations, each Farm or production unit  must have a 3%  of its land Reserved to keep the biodiversity resource.

The technology is already available.
Full Sustainability means from now on 0-Biodiversity loss.

AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK and FORESTRY

3. FOSSIL FUELS REPLACEMENT  
Sustainable Energy Sources/
(Solar, Wind, …)  (R)
Fossil fuel GHG emissions must be drastically decreased (tillage, planting, cultivation, fertilization, weed/insects/diseases control, harvest, conditioning, storage, transportation, processing, management, transportation, manufacturing, processing  …
.Specific actions:
*Fossil fuels replacement by Solar, Wind, … sources through electric and/or hydrogen powered engines.

Technology is already available, as well as growing and developing fast.
Full Sustainability means  0-Fossil Fuels in the future, anyway.

Energy Use Efficiency  (R)
Energy Efficiency Use, may be drastically increased,
by the already increasing available technology (distributed energy, Intelligent grids, Intelligent machinery, … ) as well as from the re-design of manufacturing, transportation, distribution, waste reduction,  ... processes.

* MARKET REGULATIONS
Here come the resources to make 1, 2, 3, 4, a, b, c, d,  possible.

Markets, do not receive the signals from Unsustainability (+ghgs Emissions + unsustainable land use) therefore Prices are not able to reflect  the Reality to drive Management and Investment decisions.

Specific Actions: 

I.  FOSSIL FUELS SUBSIDIES REMOVAL 
II. GHG / EMISSIONS FEE / 
CO2-eq units
- For each country, as a % of its GDP (Land Use: Agriculture,     Livestock, Forestry / GDP Total 
- Greater than a set threshold (infra-marginal emissions would be tax-exempt)

- Totally & Exclusively Earmarked to specific purposes:
Investment tax exemptions, … ,  Promotion, Research, Education, to  Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry Net Emissions reduction, sequestration and Sustainable Land Use (1 to 4 and  a to c)
Leveled annually as a function of monitoring results
- Levied at the "energy pump" (food, feed, wood, fossil fuels, ...) and collected directly from consumers
- Adjusted to inflation

*Permanent Actions, through specific government bodies, to harmonize emerging internationally differences. 
*Clearance Agreement Tariff or international commerce with countries with similar equivalent tax, charge or fee system.


Who will take these actions?

Awareness and Market Regulations, where is the power for all transformations needed, must start at the Governments,  which means, on Citizens.

Governmental Bodies/ Market Regulations, Taxes, Research, Technology, Education, Promotion
Federal/State/County level/
...

Education Organizations 
Universities
Colleges

All levels
...

Business Organizations / Field work,  Advise, Research, Promotion
Banking/
Sustainable Energy/
Agriculture/Seeds/
Livestock Production/
Forestry/
Machinery
Fertilizers/
Biotech/ …
Waste/
...

Private Companies / Investments, Research
Banks/
Sustainable Energy (Wind, Solar, )/
Biofuels from no/food raw materials
Agriculture/Seeds/Fertilizers/
Livestock/
Forestry/
Machinery
Fertilizers/
Biotech/
Waste/
...

Farms / Ranches / Forestry / Investments


Where will these actions be taken?

Photosynthesis Area


How much will emissions be reduced or sequestered vs. business as usual levels?

STATUS Net GHG Emissions  2010 by sector & group of countries, developed by the author, FAO data.

Chart 2 How Much/Status
Chart 3b excel arriba
Chart 3 b excel abajo
(≠ horizontal/vertical sums/rounding)

- Emissions/1000 Persons Mt C02 eq./yr/1000 p.
Annex I countries +developed: 0.57
Non Annex I countries -less developed: 1.47
Major cause: DEFORESTATION 

 

ACTIONS proposed, interrelations, estimations and changes magnitude in GHG decline.

Chart 3 How Much/ProposedChart 3 a arriba
Chart 3a abajo

- BIOFUELS FROM FOOD FEEDSTOCK STOP /  DEFORESTATION driver
- DECREASE RATIO Primary/Secondary  Production (-500 Mt CO2 eq./yr.) Shorter Chain/Grain Fed cattle.
- DEFORESTATION STOP (-3,237,600 Mt CO2 eq./yr.)

- No Tillage/Terraces, - Nutrients/Water Recycling, - Biotech (Sustainability/ Productivity keys)

- Reservations at farm level, 3% (A -76 Mt + L 105 + F- 46) Total (-227 Mt CO2 eq./yr.)

- FOSSIL FUELS REPLACEMENT (- 1,351 Mt CO” eq./yr.)

Total GHG Emissions Reduction = -5,315 Mt CO2 eq./yr.

Total Net GHG Emission Reduction/Total Net GHG Emissions  2010 * 100 = 5,315/8,904 = 60 %


What are other key benefits?

From: 

ECOSYSTEMS CONSERVATION
Structure
Life: Conservation / Health / Diversity
Water: Cycle / Availability 
Nutrients: Cycles / Availability
Function
Energy Flow: Food Chain / Security
Balances: Feed Back Processes / Habitat Sustainability 

ECONOMIC & SOCIAL SYSTEM 
Structure
Markets: Regulations / Wealth Sustainability 
Function
Prices: Signals / Freedom Degrees Conservation Investment 


What are the proposal’s costs?

It is an Economic Policy change in market regulations (CO2-eq Emissions Fees + Subsidies Elimination) inside the Land Use: agriculture, livestock & forestry sectors, to drive Technological Investments towards GHGs emissions Reduction, Sequestration and Sustainability. 

Fees collection is Totally & Exclusively earmarked to GHG/Sustainability Investments.

Income decrease becomes investment increase inside the sectors involved, therefore tend to have a neutral cost.

Just financial cost to do it in phases.

In terms of Carbon Price, taking into account that our forecast (5-15 years) is aligned with "Climate Change 2014, Mitigation of Climate Change, IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers" would be in de order of 100 USD / tCO2 eq. "The economic mitigation potential of supply-side measures is estimated to be 7.2 to 11GtCO2eq / year25 in 2030 for mitigation efforts consistent with carbon prices26 up to 100 USD / tCO2eq, about a third ofwhich can be achieved at a < 20 USD / tCO2eq (medium evidence, medium agreement)."


Time line

Time Line

Showed in the Chart below.

For the 5-15 years period
The estimated years are a compromise between the time needed to develop the technological, legal, administrative, political work and the urgency of starting the actions needed.

The KEY is the time needed to agree and establish almost worldwide  GHG Fee, totally and exclusively earmarked to GHG Mitigation and Land Use Sustainability, must be a rush.

For the rest of periods
It is open, 
15-50 years "Same Path" until 100%
50-100 "Secure & New issues", secure sustainable atmospheric GHG level and Land Use (agriculture, livestock and forestry) reached, together with new complexity and issues, whose causes must be understood and new actions implemented.

To make these forecast will be necessary to run a model with experimental action/effect quantitative relationships and hypothesis that is not available right now for us, before the proposal submission end date.

Chart 4 Time Line 

Chart 4 Time Line arriba
Chart 4 abajo3
 


Related proposals

The Little Engine That Could: Carbon Fee and Dividend /  CitizensClimateLobby

An Internalised Price on Carbon (IPC) /  christaylor

Expanding the concept of Cap-n-Trade to Other Related Commodities /  Marine BECCS

Carbon Reduction Reward /  carolin

Promote Carbon Tax Regulations at the State level /  frankpaine

Funding Farmers for Climate Change Mitigation (F2C2M) /  farmajarn

Save Kilimanjaro: Carbon Capture. Forest Conservation. Sustainable Communities. /  Sacred Seedlings

 Land Use: Agriculture, Livestock & Forestry by  naresh


References

HAHM
http://www.energiasustentables.com.ar/
http://www.agrosustentable.com.ar/

USDA/NREL/COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY/GHG-ACT
http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/ghg-resources.htmlhttp://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/techguide/Denef_et_al_2011_Review_of_reviews_v1.0.pdf

USDA
http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/AFGG_Inventory/USDA_GHG_Inventory.pdf

CCAFS
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/bigfacts/global-agriculture-emissions/

EPA
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHG-Inventory-2014-Chapter-Executive-Summary.pdf
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.html

UNEP
http://www.unep.org/pdf/2012gapreport.pdf

CCCEP
http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Working-Paper-180-Dietz-and-Stern-2014.pdf

CDIAC
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/

LSE
http://www.cccep.ac.uk/Publications/Other/Global-Deal-Climate-Change.pdf

NICHOLAS STERN
https://www.humphreyfellowship.org/system/files/stern_summary___what_is_the_economics_of_climate_change.pdf
http://mudancasclimaticas.cptec.inpe.br/~rmclima/pdfs/destaques/sternreview_report_complete.pdf

GOOD PLANET
http://www.goodplanet.info/en/news/2014/06/17/minimum-co2-price-32-needed-curb-warming-study-shows/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+http%2Fwwwgoodplanetinfo%2Feng%2Frss%2Ffeed%2Fdepeches+%28GoodPlanet.info+Newsfeed%29

FAOSTAT
http://faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/download/G1/*/E
http://faostat3.fao.org/faostat-download-js/PDF/EN/GT.pdf

IPCC
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch8s8-4-2.html 
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter8.pdf
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter8.pdf
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13s13-2-1-2.html

ROYAL SOCIETY
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/363/1492/789.full.pdf

HAMILTON PROJECT
http://www.amacad.org/publications/daedalus/12_spring_greenstone_looney.pdf

CCAFS
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/bigfacts/global-agriculture-emissions/http://ccafs.cgiar.org/bigfacts/food-system-emissions/
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/bigfacts/direct-agricultural-emissions/

IPCC
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch8.html

FAO
http://www.fao.org/docs/up/easypol/869/mainstream-crbn-blnce-apprsl-agric-prj-plics_099en.pdf

CANADA GOVERNMENT
http://publications.gc.ca/Collection-R/LoPBdP/BP/prb0038-e.htm

EPA
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHG-Inventory-2014-Chapter-6-Agriculture.pdf
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHG-Inventory-2014-Chapter-7-Land-Use-Land-Use-Change-and-Forestry.pdf
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHG-Inventory-2014-Chapter-3-Energy.pdf

USDA
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/detail.aspx?chartId=45973

CCAFS
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/bigfacts/livestock-emissions/

CCAFS
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/bigfacts/deforestation-emissions/
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch9.html