Based on Pathways to Deep Decarbonization reports for Other Developing Countries, prepared by the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project.
This seed proposal is based on several Pathways to Deep Decarbonization reports relevant to other developing countries, reports prepared in 2015 by the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The proposal was prepared by a Climate CoLab Fellow. We invite other CoLab members to link to this proposal or to use it as a starting point for creating new proposals of their own. DDPP has not reviewed or endorsed this proposal.
DDPP is a collaborative global research initiative to understand how individual countries can transition to a low-carbon economy consistent with the internationally agreed goal of limiting anthropogenic warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius (°C).
It was convened under the auspices of the the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) and the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN).
The country teams include researchers from leading institutions in their respective countries, acting independently; they do not represent the official positions of their national governments.
The Other Developing Countries included in the DDPP exercise were Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, and South Africa (reports for the first three countries were pending as of October 2015, while the report for the last has been completed).
In total, emissions from the energy (the primary focus of DDPP) were projected to peak in 2020 at approximately 2 Gigatons (2Gt) of CO2 and then fall slightly through 2050, to approximately 1.5 Gt.
For a graph that shows the emission pathways for the all Other Developing countries as a group, see DDPP, Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in Australia, page 15.
Which proposals are included in your plan and how do they fit together?
Explanation of the emissions scenario calculated in the Impact tab
The EMF-27 model was used, and variables were selected to align with the DDPP projection for Other Developing Countries:
- Business as usual carbon policy (this seems a plausible assumption for many developing countries)
- But energy efficiency increasing at twice the historical rate and no constraints on low-carbon energy sources (this seems a plausible assumption in a world where richer countries will be investing in efficiency and low carbon energy)
These assumptions resulted in reductions in CO2 emissions from energy by 2050 in line with the DDPP report.
What are the plan’s key benefits?
What are the plan’s costs?
What are the key challenges to enacting this plan?
DDPP, Pathways to Deep Decarbonization Synthesis Report, 2015.