Seed Proposal: IEA 2 Degrees Celsius (2DS) Scenario by Katia Vladimirova
This proposal is based on the 2 Degrees Celsius (2DS) scenario in the International Energy Agency report Energy Technology Perspectives 2015
This seed proposal is a summary of Energy Technology Perspectives 2015: Mobilizing Innovation to Accelerate Climate Action, created by a Climate CoLab Fellow. We invite other CoLab members to link to this proposal or to use it as a starting point for creating a new proposals of their own. International Energy Agency (IEA) has not reviewed or endorsed this summary.
International Energy Agency (IEA), an international program of energy cooperation among 29 OECD countries, publishes an annual study of energy technology and innovation to accelerate climate action, Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP).
ETP complements other publications of the IEA: the annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) and Energy, Climate and Environment (ECE).
The focus of ETP is the 2°C Scenario (2DS), which describes an energy system consistent with emissions trajectory that recent climate science research indicates would give an 80 per cent chance of limiting global temperature increase to 2°C.
The IEA also has a low carbon scenario in the WEO and provides a guide for comparing the scenarios used in ETP and WEO.
ETP starts by stressing the fact that energy decarbonisation is already under way, but it needs to be boosted. In order to achieve a 2DS, it is necessary to double two rates of improvement:
- the decoupling energy use from GDP and population growth
- decarbonization of energy supply
Renewables and efficiency are each expected to account for one-third fo the cumulative 750 gigatons of reductions in CO2 emissions through 2050, with nuclear and carbon capture combined accounting for the other third.
Heating and cooling offer a largely untapped and substantial potential for the decarbonizing of energy system. It is important to accelerate the uptake of low-carbon electricity supply options, as decarbonizing electricity and increasing electricity end-use efficiency remain key components to the 2DS.
ETP suggests that the promise of energy technology innovation through both national policies and international multi-stakeholder cooperation can mobilize climate action. There is a need for energy innovation at the system level. Particularly, the plan highlights the potential of wind and solar PV, as well as carbon capture and storage.
Support for both incremental and radical innovation is particularly crucial across the low-carbon technology spectrum, and government support across all phases of RDD&D can facilitate both.
Emerging economies are uniquely positioned to deliver the greatest, fastest advances towards climate change goals by deploying low-carbon technologies. Domestic innovation of low-carbon technologies is increasing in emerging economies. A case study of China’s energy technology innovation offers insights into possible innovation areas, which emerged because of the country’s recent air pollution and environmental policies. ETP underscores that international collaboration in RDD&D is vital for technology and knowledge transfer and innovation.
Finally, ETP stresses that the current level of RDD&D investment is insufficient for achieving long-term climate goals. IEA advocates leveraging private investment by mobilizing public financing and RDD&D funds; successful examples of such models exist in OECD countries and have been adopted in emerging economies. There is a compelling case for investing in a low-carbon energy system, supported by projections that fuel cost savings more than offset the additional investment costs.
ETP ends with specific recommendations to energy ministers.
Which plan do you select for China?Seed Proposal: Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project in China
Which plan do you select for India?Seed Proposal: Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project in India
Which plan do you select for the United States?Seed Proposal: Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project in the United States
Which plan do you select for Europe?Seed Proposal: Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project in the European Union
Which plan do you select for other developing countries?Seed Proposal: Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Other Developing Countries
Which plan do you select for other developed countries?Seed Proposal: Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in Other Developed Countries
What additional cross-regional proposals are included in your plan, if any?
How do the regional and cross-sectoral plans above fit together?
Note: This proposal plans to link to proposals in the National/Regional Workspace based on the work of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project.
Explanation of the emissions scenario calculated in the Impact tab
The EMF-27 model was used, and variables were selected to align with the ETP report:
- Policies in place to achieve 450 parts per million atmospheric concentrations of CO2
- Energy efficiency increases at nearly double historical rates
- All low carbon energy supply technologies are available
These resulted in reductions in CO2 emissions from energy by 2050 that were in line with the ETP report.
What are the plan’s key benefits?
What are the plan’s costs?
What are the key challenges to enacting this plan?
International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Technology Perspectives 2015, Exeuctive Summary