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Greg Robie

Jan 25, 2016
06:43

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Does this theory concerning the wisdom of crowds apply to the threats of climate change? If this wisdom was being tapped in a matter that conformed to social stories, I'd concur. However, with climate change, the threats arrive two generations before they can be seen. I know of no social story that prepares us to be wise about such threats. Does anyone?

During the past quarter of a century the matter of carbon dioxide emissions and climate disruption have been talked about and worked on. During that same quarter century emissions have risen 60%. I am challenged to see this statistic as other than what constitutes privileged human wisdom in the 'Developed' World: doing the same thing (a story) over and over again, while expecting the results to be different.

To the degree this is so, this proposal's exercise would likely only access this memes irrational motivated reasoning…much as what likely occurred with the rationalizing integral to MIT's Plan for Climate Change. Isn't our meme's "wisdom", thanks to trusted motivated reasoning (stories), a thinking that cannot be trusted to imagine solutions for a climate system that is tearing itself apart in conformance to the Laws of physics?


Carsten Pedersen

Jan 25, 2016
12:26

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It should be noted that by 'forecast' I'm referring predominantly to the collectively predicted success of various initiatives' effect on climate change and/or likelihood of coming to fruition. The forecasting horizon (from prediction to actual outcome) can, in this domain, be between 3 - 18 months. Hence, the practical value lies in the specific and near term implications. The notion of 'the wisdom of crowds' is built upon mathematical principles and have been replicated in a wide range of empirical settings which validates the underlying rationale... Even the present platform of climate co lab is a testiment of collective intelligence... Hence, the notion bears promise in a climate challenge as well.

Finally, it should similarly be emphasized that predictions are an inherent aspect of human activity, as ALL decisions entail a certain amount of predictions. Hence, utilizing the collective wisdom of MIT alumni on the issue of climate change may help overcome idiosyncratic biases in decision making to obtain more "wise/intelligent" decisions in climate related issues.... And here, MIT alumni can no doubt contribute as a collective!


Sergio Pena

Apr 20, 2016
11:40

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Excellent idea and presentation: However, some thoughts to give you feedback:

The question problem to a crowd should be explicitly expressed. Otherwise, member of the crowd might understand the question in different ways.

Today you can find multiples areas on which of forecasts as far as climate change is concerned. Every single human activity as well as every single non human activity will be exposed to tremendous changes in case we face a dramatic change in climate. Are you thinking on one specific activity like illnesses, particularly pandemias in order to focus the "crowd"?

Why not to think in crowds? To take MIT Alumni from different areas for the forecast. Be aware that a large amount of areas have non been expressed in MIT´s education or research, for example, Law.

Crowds in many cases believe in certain ideas and develop answers in relation to ideas extensively known in their education. As well, a proposal like this does not consider the problem of age and type of education.

Hoping to generate feedback for you proposal, all the best.


Carsten Pedersen

Apr 20, 2016
04:25

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Thank you very much for the comments and feedback.

I completely agree that it is of paramount importance that the questions will be framed as accurate, explicit and unambiguous as possible. This is an essential issue in practice, and one which I am fully aware of. Processes will be set in place to pre-test and review the questions before they are posted to the crowd.

Your points on age and similarity in educational background are also excellent. However, the questions posed to the crowd of MIT alumni would need to be based (predominantly) in the core expertise of the MIT alumni community - which in this case would be e.g. technology, science and entrepreneurship. Hence, questions concerning climate solutions would need to incorporate these aspects to fully utilize the potential of the MIT alumni crowd. As long as the crowd members provide their forecasts independently of one another, there should be sufficient diversity in the group - even though they have a similar educational background.

Again - thank you very much for your fruitful comments and feedback!


Niraikalai Vijay

Apr 22, 2016
08:05

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I find this idea of forecasting climate solution also interesting.

Forecasting climate solutions, much like weather forecasting, can help with timing aspect (like which solution needs to be implemented quickly, correspondingly adjusting schedules/plans for the projects. And also it can help with budgeting etc.

I feel this proposal can be  implemented as part of other two proposals and result can be used to make on-line learning option and Roof program more dynamic.

Just thoughts.