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Pitch

We have 100% of technology off-the-shelf to make all buildings Net Zero Carbon! Eliminate fuel & peaking generation. Save the Planet!


Description

Summary

A complete Net Zero Carbon (NZ) solution for MIT, with the use of Geothermal Heat Pumps (GHP) for all HVAC, is an example showing two paradigms - 1) massively reduce grid power demand, and 2) eliminate grid peak power demand.  The figure below shows the energy reduction possible with GHP.

We show 59% greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction achievable at zero ($0) net cost, and 100% reduction available. 

The issue of peak power generation is getting worse with the policies currently on the table.  Namely, many HVAC systems, both residential and commercial, are being changed to Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHP).  This is a horrible error that will force construction of more and more generation capacity.  Consider the graphic below which compares ASHP and GHP at the ASHRAE Building in Atlanta, GA.

This is a direct comparison in a DOE/ORNL involved study comparing two floors of the same building with nearly equal load, and the ASHP (red squares) system is VRF (advanced) technology, while the GHP (blue diamonds) equipment is scroll (average).  This site is also not  yet "tuned" to balance the winter and summer GHP loads -- that will create a more balanced seasonal difference summer and winter. 

Overall, the study finds the average (scroll) GHP systems are 44% more efficient than the advanced (VRF) ASHP systems.  Thus, this difference will be even larger if VRF GHP is compared with VRF ASHP.  The flip of that is 79% more electric generation is needed for the more advanced ASHP HVAC system than the GHP (1/(1-0.44) = 1.79) - 79%more generation, and 79% more (when balanced) even at the peaks for ASHP verses GHP is a very large figure.

The balance of this proposal is our basic Net Zero Carbon pitch to MIT, but it embodies all that is needed regarding GHP conversion.  The same basic proposal with slight variations is submitted for several of the MIT Climate CoLab contests.


Category of the action

Reducing emissions from electric power sector.


What actions do you propose?

Overview

We stand at the great Inflection Point in history when humanity converts from fossil fuel to Renewable Energy (RE) for buildings.  The amount of energy delivered by the sun to earth in one hour is more than humanity uses in a year.  Engineers are taking advantage of this plus energy collection and storage techniques to create a new class of buildings/campuses that are called Net Zero Energy (NZ/NZE) based on the combination of Energy Efficiency (EE), Geothermal Heat Pumps (GHP), Photovoltaics (PV).  Many NZE Commercial Buildings already exist in the U.S., and the pace of NZ construction/‌conversion is rapidly increasing.  At this point, several large companies, school systems, and the entire federal government [6] are committed to NZE construction and retrofits for all their large buildings within the next decade.  Climate Bonds provide a virtually unlimited funding source for the proposed systems.[7]

MIT should join this Net Zero Movement, implement a NZ conversion, and provide leadership and research where technological advancements are needed.  Funds currently directed toward new boiler and chiller system upgrades, neither of which will ever be NZ Carbon solutions, should instead be redirected to GHP (Geothermal Heat Pumps) - the proven most efficient HVAC/thermal building energy system yielding cost savings 70% and GHG savings around 50%.  GHP represents a "leapfrog" opportunity, skipping the less efficient steam to hot water upgrades many campus/district are planning. 

The 2-pipe GHP-based thermal energy system proposed here has been proven "effectively free" (see figure below) based on energy savings and available Climate Bond financing, thus removing MIT's need for identifying Capital Improvement funds for this work.  Failure by MIT to take this step now will unnecessarily lock the MIT campus into fossil fuel consumption for decades.

We further propose on-site PV and energy storage that will take MIT to 100% GHG emissions free.  The graphic shows our initial recommendation, but a faster implementation of both the GHP and PV systems is possible if desired.  We layout here a complete NZ plan team of experts to help MIT convert its campus and become the world leader in this field that it should be. 

Proposal leader Net Zero Foundation is a 501c3 scientific and educational non-profit co-founded by an MIT'81 Systems Engineer.  Net Zero Foundation is dedicated to spreading knowledge of how Net Zero Energy Systems will solve many of our biggest climate/pollution problems and create an economic boom in the process.

Summary

The presented NZ solution meets the following basic criteria:

  1. Exceeds >NZ-32% GHG reduction by 2030[1][2] -- 45%-55% predicted (GHP/GHP+PV),
  2. Full campus NZ-100% achievement by 2050, and
  3. Research for MIT to solve the remaining technological blocks to global NZ achievement.

Achieving full NZE/GHG elimination requires the following five (5) technology sets:

  1. Energy Efficiency (EE) to a reasonable cost effectiveness level (already underway),
  2. Highly efficient GHP HVAC systems - high efficiency plus annual cycle thermal storage,
  3. On-site Clean Energy production - PV (photovoltaics), possibly PV + thermal,
  4. On-site electric storage via next generation battery systems (see research).

New Thinking Required

MIT's campus uses a CHP plant, efficiencies for this generation of energy equipment are in the 65% to 100% percent range, and depend on an infinite utility (nat. gas) supply.  The thermal solutions we bring are of a fundamentally different nature with annual cycle thermal storage (renewable) aspect, and far higher efficiencies generally 350%-500% (Coefficient of Performance (COP) = 3.5 - 5.0).  GHP powered by PV or Wind has an infinite efficiency from a GHG perspective.  Consideration of these systems requires new thinking, and we invite all to learn how this next generation of energy systems will fundamentally move the world forward.

Imperative

MIT should notice the writing on the wall before embarking on this move:

  • The Divestment Movement has gained significant strength
  • "Overall, 13 out of the 15 highest monthly temperature departures in the record have all occurred since February 2015" (NOAA, April 2016)
  • Once the world realizes NZE/NZ Carbon is technically and financially feasible, the pressure for NZ transformation will increase.

This plan easily meets the 32% GHG reduction goal and shows how to completely eliminate GHG emissions from MIT's campus operations by 2050 or sooner.  While we only propose implementing technologies as they reach the "effectively free" point with available financing, much faster full conversion is possible, and adoption of an aggressive path for full NZ Carbon will make MIT an undisputed leader as called for in the Climate Change Conversion Report.  Faster conversion should be considered.

The Cost

Funding for this plan will be from fossil fuel savings, already planned mechanical system expenditures, maintenance savings, grants from MA Clean Energy Center, plus Net Zero Bonds certified under the Climate Bonds Initiative [7] or the MIT Endowment once its managers realize this is the best investment MIT can make for the future.  These systems all have far lower LCC (Life Cycle Cost), so savings generated will be indefinite and more secure than existing endowment investments.

Plan Outline

The plan includes the following specific steps which are somewhat overlapping and detailed below (Systems Installation Track):

  • Design: Site Analysis, Advanced Thermal System Modeling/Simulation/Design - Year 1
  • Phase 1: Advanced Thermal Systems Installation - Years 1 - 25
  • Phase 2: Advanced On-Campus PV Systems Installation - Years 2 - 26
  • Phase 3: Advanced Electric Battery Systems Installation - Years 10 - 35
  • Phase 4: Final Net Zero Carbon Conversion - Years 25 - 35

Our Research Recommendations include the following:

Net Zero Research:

  • Item 1: Net Zero Energy Economics - Continuous

Advanced Thermal Research:

  • Item 2: Drill Rig Silencing - Years 1 - 2
  • Item 3: Tuned Phase Change Energy Storage Pods - Years 1 - 5
  • Item 4: Thermal Systems Optimization Curriculum and Analysis - Years 3+

Advanced Electric Research/Analysis:

  • Item 5: Large Capacity Electric Battery R&D - Years 1 - 15
  • Item 6: Full Net Zero Energy Conversion Modeling - Years 2+
  • Item 7: Flat Tracking Solar PV Demonstration/Analysis - Years 2-4

Feasibility

We previously had a NZ proposal at MIT dismissed for not being feasible.  While we do not have sufficient space to fully teach cost-effective NZ, let us suggest the following list proves feasibility:

  • Members of our Expert Team have completed institutional and retail NZ buildings, including converting one college campus to NZ Carbon
  • IKEA and Walgreens have already built NZ and NZR stores with corporate commitments to NZ Carbon (our team included)
  • US DOE has significant NZE/NZR Buildings efforts (see http://energy.gov/eere/buildings/zero-energy-buildings)
  • U.S. government has committed to make all large buildings NZE [6].
  • There are now over 200 NZ Buildings in the U.S. [?]

Risk/Team

The technologies proposed are proven, but risk is a real factor with improper/insufficient design.  While PV is not yet "effectively free", PV is none-the-less well proven and risk free.  But, central to this proposal is conversion of MIT campus HVAC systems to GHP.  This requires experienced experts.  We are shocked that many engineers are willing to profess they "do geothermal" yet don't have the required experience or CGD (Certified GeoExchange Designer) certification.  We have seen many improperly designed systems that required fixing after the fact.  The root of the CGD certification is understanding how to model, simulate, and then design large commercial GHP systems to be both reliable and economical.  Further, this proposal requires distributed campus/‌district system modeling/simulation -- something very few understand.

We have assembled the following team of five (5) top North American NZ/NZR experts for Design and Phases 1-2 to eliminate risk:

  • Don Penn, PE, CGD, CGI - 49 state licensed professional engineer responsible for the largest Net Zero secondary school to date, GHP systems for school districts in four (4) states, consulted on GHP at Harvard, on the DOE Review Committee that approved largest district GHP project to date (Ball State);
  • Ed Lohrenz, B.E.S., CGD - GHP industry since 1982, wrote the CGD training course, large system 2nd and 3rd party review, and the go-to expert for GHP forensic analysis;
  • Cary Smith, CGD, CEM, CEA - 40 years experience in energy systems, distributed/‌district GHP expert with many clients >1000 tons including one university now effectively NZ;
  • Carl Orio, CGD - the premier GHP drilling expert in the Northeast U.S. whose team has designed and equipped over 14,000 geo systems, co-author “Modern Geothermal HVAC Engineering & Control Applications”;
  • Rick Clemenzi, PE, CGD, MIT'81 - GHP engineer and contractor, flat-tracking PV breakthrough inventor, modeling/simulation specialist, co-founder Net Zero Foundation (501c3), co-author of this proposal.

The only topic in this proposal outside the expertise of these individuals is Systems Installation Phase 3 (Years 15 - 25) based on the results of Research Item 6: Large Capacity Electric Battery R&D (Years 1 - 15).  This field requires new expertise.

Systems Design and Installation

Three (3) key steps are required for full NZ conversion: Design, GHP conversion, and PV installation or Renewable Energy purchased off-site.  GHP alone can obtain 45% - 60% GHG reduction. 

Please accept our apologies, but we must ask that you read the balance of our proposal in "MIT Climate Mitigation Solutions" -- there is insufficient space here.


Who will take these actions?

Systems Installation Track

We have assembled a team of top North American experts to design and assist MIT in installing the Net Zero Systems identified in this proposal.  The breadth of Net Zero experience in this team is critical for this level of Advanced Net Zero Systems Engineering.  The team includes:

  • Don Penn, PE, CGD, CGI - 49 state licensed professional engineer responsible for the largest Net Zero secondary school to date, GHP systems for school districts in four (4) states, consulted on GHP at Harvard, on the DOE Review Committee that approved largest district GHP project to date (Ball State);
  • Ed Lohrenz, B.E.S., CGD - GHP industry since 1982, wrote the CGD training course, large system 2nd and 3rd party review, and the go-to expert for GHP forensic analysis;
  • Cary Smith, CGD, CEM, CEA - 40 years experience in energy systems, distributed/‌district GHP expert with many clients >1000 tons including one university now effectively NZ;
  • Carl Orio, CGD - the premier GHP drilling expert in the Northeast U.S. whose team has designed and equipped over 14,000 geo systems, co-author “Modern Geothermal HVAC Engineering & Control Applications”;
  • Rick Clemenzi, PE, CGD, MIT'81 - GHP engineer and contractor, PV systems inventor, modeling/simulation specialist, co-founder Net Zero Foundation (501c3), co-author of this proposal.

 

Research Track

The Research Track is for MIT faculty and students to achieve.  It contains a very broad spectrum of technologies and complexities, including advanced research that will take years.  The full spectrum of departments involved in the cited research efforts will likely include ME (2), Materials (3), Architecture (4), Chemistry (5), EE (6), Economics (14), Management (15), Earth Sciences (12), Engineering Systems Division (ESD), Science/Technology/Society (STS), Environmental Solutions Initiative (ESI), and MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI).


Where will these actions be taken?

Globally.


How much will emissions be reduced or sequestered vs. business as usual levels?

The MIT Net Zero Conversion GHG Savings graph shows the projected carbon reduction from this Net Zero Carbon proposal.  For MIT, we achieve 58.8% GHG savings with an Advanced Geothermal Heat Pump solution "effectively free", and 17% GHG reduction from an Advanced PV installation.  Thermal and electric energy storage and off-site purchased PV/Wind energy can take the campus to 100% Net Zero Carbon.

Predicted GHG emissions for MIT are as follows, 1%/yr EE assumed, base MTCO2e = 192,247 [5] (w/o Purchased Clean Energy):

Year    GHG

2016   189,556

2020   157,100

2025   119,956

2030   85,653

2035   54,439

2040   27,307

2045   21,037

2050   18,557


What are other key benefits?

The Net Zero Foundation proposals show a specific plan for significant near-term energy and carbon reduction goals, and a mid-term path to 100% Net Zero Carbon.

 For MIT, we achieve 58.8% GHG savings with an Advanced Geothermal Heat Pump solution "effectively free", and 17% GHG reduction from an Advanced PV installation.  Thermal and electric energy storage and off-site purchased PV/Wind energy can take the campus and any building to 100% Net Zero Carbon.

Net Zero Carbon buildings benefit the greater society with a 37% GHG reduction (U.S.) as shown in the figure below. 

Net Zero Carbon eliminates outlays for fossil fuel usage, builds wealth locally, and creates Clean Energy jobs.

Net Zero Carbon also eliminates all H2O used in fuel-based electricity production and chiller cooling for buildings - the Energy-Water Nexus.


What are the proposal’s costs?

A basic premise of our Net Zero Carbon proposal is that we only undertake steps when they become "effectively free".  The figure shows the approximate current Cost/Benefit value of many Renewable Energy/Energy Efficiency technologies.  All of the technologies to the right of the "Effectively free" vertical green line save more energy than they cost to install and finance.  Unsurprisingly, Weatherstripping and Double Pane windows are at the far right of the graph being most affordable, and Nuclear is currently at the far left being generally not affordable.

In the middle we find PV (photovoltaics) and GHP (Geothermal Heat Pumps) which are at the center of this proposal.  At this point in time, GHP is being found to be "effectively free" in almost all circumstances -- certainly at MIT.  Thus, the GHP portion of this proposal has no cost component.

PV has not yet reached the "effective free" point, but it is very rapidly advancing in that direction.  It is our premise that PV too will be fully "effective free" by the time we propose installing it at MIT.  This includes some specific breakthroughs we identify herein which significantly increase PV output.

The only portions of this proposal that have real costs associated with them are the optional later stages.  We do not recommend installation of those phases until they too become nearly "effectively free".


Time line

The Net Zero Energy project contains 5 identified phases which in general fall into the following time periods (please see the main body for more detail):

Systems Installation Track:

  • Design: Site Analysis, Advanced Thermal System Modeling/Simulation/Design - Year 1
  • Phase 1: Advanced Thermal Systems Installation - Years 1 - 25
  • Phase 2: Advanced On-Campus PV Systems Installation - Years 2 - 26
  • Phase 3: Advanced Electric Battery Systems Installation - Years 10 - 35
  • Phase 4: Final Net Zero Carbon Conversion - Years 25 - 35

Research Track:

Net Zero Research:

  • Item 1: Net Zero Energy Economics - Continuous

Advanced Thermal Research:

  • Item 2: Drill Rig Silencing - Years 1 - 2
  • Item 3: Tuned Phase Change Energy Storage Pods - Years 1 - 5
  • Item 4: Thermal Systems Optimization Curriculum and Analysis - Years 3+

Advanced Electric Research/Analysis:

  • Item 5: Large Capacity Electric Battery R&D - Years 1 - 15
  • Item 6: Full Net Zero Energy Conversion Modeling - Years 2+
  • Item 7: Flat Tracking Solar PV Demonstration/Analysis - Years 2-4


Related proposals

This Net Zero Carbon proposal addresses the subject topic in each of the following Climate CoLab areas.  The proposals are exactly the same because Net Zero Carbon solves the issues in all of these areas.  A different Summary is given for each to highlight the connection and synergy.  Due to the short space available, the only complete proposal is under MIT Climate Mitigation Solutions, with reduced versions in the others:

MIT Climate Mitigation Solutions:

Buildings:

Energy Water Nexus:

Energy Supply:


References

We cite the following major sources in addition to MIT's Plan and Update for Action on Climate Change:

[1] "A Plan for Action on Climate Change", MIT, October 21, 2015

[2] "Update on the Plan for Action on Climate Change", MIT, April 27, 2016

[3] "MIT AND THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE", MIT CLIMATE CHANGE CONVERSATION COMMITTEE , JUNE 2015

[4] "MIT Greenhouse Inventory Data - Basic Spreadsheet (2014-2015)", MIT Office of Sustainability

[5] "A Methodology for Assessing MIT's Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions", Tiffany Amber Groode, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, May 2004

[6] " Executive  Order  13693—Planning  for  Federal  Sustainability  in  the Next Decade", President Obama, USA

[7] " Climate Bonds Taxonomy", Climate Bonds Initiative,http://www.climatebonds.net/files/files/cbi-green-climate-definitions-v1_2.xlsx

[8] "Estimated U.S. Total Energy Consumption 2015", Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, March 2016, U.S. Department of Energy EIA (Energy Information Agency)

[9] "Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks:1990–2013", EPA 430-R-15-004, April 15, 2015

[10] "Natural Gas Consumption (Btu) and Energy Intensities by End Use for All Buildings, 2003", EIA, Table E7A, September 2008

[11] Consumptive Water Use for U.S. Power Production, December 2003, NREL/TP-550-33905 P. Torcellini, N. Long, and R. Judkoff

[12] "Net-Zero Energy Buildings: A Classification System Based on Renewable Energy Supply Options", Shanti Pless and Paul Torcellini, Technical Report NREL/TP-550-44586, June 2010

[13] "Geothermal HVAC Case Study Success in K-12 Schools and Nation’s Largest Net Zero School", 2014 IGSHPA Annual Conference Baltimore, Don Penn, PE, CGD, Image Engineering Group, Ltd.

[14] "Lady Bird Johnson Middle School - Irving, TX", 2013 IGSHPA Annual Conference Las Vegas, Don Penn, PE, CGD, Image Engineering Group, Ltd.

[15] "Performance of the HVAC Systems at the ASHRAE Headquarters Building", L.E. Southard, P.E., Xiaobing Liu, Ph.D., and J.D. Spitler, Ph.D., P.E.

[16] "A Local Law to amend the administrative code of the city of New York, in relation to geothermal systems", enacted January 5, 2016

[17] "Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Technical Potential in the United States: A Detailed Assessment", National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-65298, January 2016

[18] "Germany Just Got Almost All of Its Power From Renewable Energy", Bloomberg, Jessica Shankleman, May 16, 2016

[19] Coming: 'MA Clean Energy Center Commercial Geothermal Rebate Program', MA CEC 2016

[20] "The Guide to Developing Solar Photovoltaics at Massachusetts Landfills", Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources

[21] "Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Appendix F. Electricity Emission Factors", EIA

[22] "Campus Energy Independence", University of Wisconsin River Falls, 2008